The Streak Is Over
For 142 consecutive days, Bitcoin trailed the S&P 500. It was the longest stretch of relative underperformance in Bitcoin's history — longer than the 2018 bear market drawdown, longer than the post-FTX collapse, longer than any prior cycle correction.
That streak ended in early May 2026.
Mark Connors, former global head of portfolio at Credit Suisse and current CIO of Risk Dimensions, says the breakout isn't noise. He argues the reversal is structural, not cyclical — driven by persistent inflation, high oil prices, and a rates environment that punishes bonds and stretches equity valuations.
Why 142 Days Matters
Most investors measure Bitcoin in absolute terms: price up, price down. But the more revealing metric is relative performance — how Bitcoin behaves against the assets it's supposed to complement or replace.
During this 142-day stretch, the S&P 500 held up on the back of AI-fueled mega-cap earnings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin absorbed a wave of headwinds: $2.26 billion in ETF outflows over two weeks, CPI printing at 3.8%, Treasury yields pushing above 5.1%, and geopolitical shocks from the Iran-Hormuz crisis.
The fact that Bitcoin broke out of that streak despite these conditions — not because they resolved — is the signal worth watching.
The Inflation Argument
Connors's thesis is straightforward: inflation isn't transitory, it's structural. Energy prices remain elevated. Tariffs are adding cost pressure. The Fed is stuck in a higher-for-longer posture with no clear path to cuts.
In that environment, bonds lose purchasing power. Equities can grow earnings, but valuation multiples get compressed by high discount rates. Gold benefits, but its upside is limited by the same institutional friction that held it back for decades.
Bitcoin, Connors argues, sits in a unique position: a hard-capped supply asset that benefits from the same monetary debasement fears as gold, but with growing institutional infrastructure (ETFs, custody, regulatory clarity) that gold already has.
What the Data Shows
The timing aligns with several on-chain and market signals:
-
ETF flows are stabilizing. After $1.039 billion in weekly outflows during the May 11-15 selloff, BlackRock's IBIT has attracted roughly $3 billion since April 2, now holding over 821,000 BTC — about 3.91% of total supply.
-
Exchange reserves are at all-time lows. Less Bitcoin available on exchanges means reduced sell pressure and tighter supply dynamics.
-
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 28. Historically, sustained periods of fear followed by a structural breakout have preceded the strongest rallies.
The Counter-Argument
Not everyone is convinced. Bitcoin is still down roughly 30% from its all-time high. The CLARITY Act hasn't passed the full Senate yet. Rate cuts remain off the table for now. And the Iran situation, while easing, hasn't fully resolved.
Connors himself acknowledges the bottoming process could extend through the summer. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently projected Bitcoin won't see a sustained move higher until late 2026 or early 2027, with a potential target of $250,000 by late 2029.
The question isn't whether Bitcoin goes up tomorrow. It's whether the 142-day underperformance was the anomaly — or the start of something worse.
Bitcoin Gate Take
The end of the longest-ever underperformance streak against equities is not a buy signal — it's an information signal. It tells you that Bitcoin held its ground through one of the most hostile macro environments in recent memory and came out the other side. For long-term holders, the structural case just got stronger. For everyone else, the bottoming process may have more time to play out before the next leg becomes obvious.
If you're planning around decades, not quarters, our retirement calculator can help you model what different accumulation strategies look like from here.